I am asked by the Pro-Life Campaign to advise regarding the projected incidence of abortion in the Republic of Ireland in the event that the 8th Amendment is repealed.
I am asked to compare the number of induced abortions during the next 12 years based on current abortion rates with the number of induced abortions that would occur if the abortion rate increases linearly during the next 4 years to the most recent rates pertaining in Switzerland, Germany, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, Denmark or France.
Summary of the Results
Comparisons with the above 7 countries for the 12 year period from 2019 to 2030 inclusive are as follows:
Comparator Incidence* of Induced Abortions from 2019 to 2030 if the Republic of Ireland’s Abortion Rate Increases during the next 4 years to that of the Country Shown
Republic of Ireland (current rate) 48,000
Hence the numbers of additional abortions on these assumptions are as follows:
Comparator Number of Additional Abortions:
During the next 12 Years
- Switzerland 32,000
- Germany 39,000
- Belgium 55,000
- Finland 66,000
- Portugal 68,000
- Denmark 82,000
- France 107,000
This can be represented pictorially as follows:
Taking the average from the above analysis, the projected number of additional abortions from 2019 to 2030 inclusive comes to 64,000 which is more than 5,300 per annum or an average of a little over 100 additional abortions per week.
* Rounded to the nearest 1,000.
The data used in the calculations are set out in the Appendix.
Brendan Lynch A.I.A.
Anne-Marie Gleeson, FSAI, Actuary
In association with:
Gerard Stockil, B.Sc., MIEE, Lecturer in Engineering
Jim Stack, MSc, PhD, Statistician
World Health Organization, 2016, “European Health Information Gateway,” WHO Europe, on line [http://portal.euro.who.int/en/visualizations/line-charts/hfa_587-number-of-abortions-all-ages/#table].
Statistics Denmark, 2016, “ABORT: Abortions by age,” Statistics Denmark, on line [http://www.statbank.dk/ABORT].
Heino, Anna, and Mika Gissler, 2017, “Induced abortions 2016,” Julkari, on line [http://www.julkari.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/135557/Tr40_17.pdf].
Vilain, Annick, June 2017, “211 900 interruptions volontaires de grossesse en 2016,” Etudes & Resultats, 1013, on line at DREES [http://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/er_1013.pdf].
Statistisches Bundesamt, 2018, “Abortions: Abortions by reason of termination, duration of terminated pregnancy and number of previous live births,” Statistisches Bundesamt, on line [https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/SocietyState/Health/Abortions/Tables/LegalStatement.html].
Servico Nacional de Saude, 2017, “Interrupcoa da gravidez,” SNS, [https://www.sns.gov.pt/noticias/2017/12/07/interrupcao-da-gravidez/].
Statistik Schweiz, 2016, “Anzahl Schwangershcaftsabbruche, nach Kanton der intervention, 2004-2015,” Statistik Schweiz, on line [http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/14/02/03/key/03.Document.85933.xls].
Department of Health, Jan. 2018, “Abortion Statistics, England and Wales: 2016,” Department of Health, on line [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679028/Abortions_stats_England_Wales_2016.pdf]. <<abortions in UK>>
Johnston’s Archive at johnstonsarchive.net
- The abortion % is the number of abortions on residents divided by the total number of (live births plus abortions) among residents.
- No allowance has been made for population increases.
- An upward adjustment has been made to the reported Irish rate to make allowance for possible under reporting and the use of abortion pills. In the absence of a definitive way to measure the impact of these issues we have arbitrarily increased the current number of abortions by 2 per day or 730 per annum. This increases the abortion rate from 4.9 as in the above table to 5.9 and this latter figure has been used in the calculations above.