Actuary’s Report

I am asked by the Pro-Life Campaign to advise regarding the projected incidence of abortion in the Republic of Ireland in the event that the 8th Amendment is repealed.

I am asked to compare the number of induced abortions during the next 12 years based on current abortion rates with the number of induced abortions that would occur if the abortion rate increases linearly during the next 4 years to the most recent rates pertaining in Switzerland, Germany, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, Denmark or France.

Summary of the Results

Comparisons with the above 7 countries for the 12 year period from 2019 to 2030 inclusive are as follows:

Comparator Incidence* of Induced Abortions from 2019 to 2030 if the Republic of Ireland’s Abortion Rate Increases during the next 4 years to that of    the Country Shown

Republic of Ireland (current rate)  48,000

Switzerland  80,000

Germany  87,000

Belgium 103,000

Finland 114,000

Portugal 116,000

Denmark 130,000

France 155,000

Hence the numbers of additional abortions on these assumptions are as follows:

Comparator Number of Additional Abortions:

During the next 12 Years

  • Switzerland  32,000
  • Germany  39,000
  • Belgium  55,000
  • Finland  66,000
  • Portugal  68,000
  • Denmark  82,000
  • France 107,000

This can be represented pictorially as follows:
Taking the average from the above analysis, the projected number of additional abortions from 2019 to 2030 inclusive comes to 64,000 which is more than 5,300 per annum or an average of a little over 100 additional abortions per week.

 

* Rounded to the nearest 1,000.

The data used in the calculations are set out in the Appendix.

 

Brendan Lynch A.I.A.

Anne-Marie Gleeson, FSAI, Actuary

In association with:

Gerard Stockil, B.Sc., MIEE, Lecturer in Engineering

Jim Stack, MSc, PhD, Statistician

Appendix

Sources:

World Health Organization, 2016, “European Health Information Gateway,” WHO Europe, on line [http://portal.euro.who.int/en/visualizations/line-charts/hfa_587-number-of-abortions-all-ages/#table]. 

Denmark
Statistics Denmark, 2016, “ABORT: Abortions by age,” Statistics Denmark, on line [http://www.statbank.dk/ABORT].

Finland
Heino, Anna, and Mika Gissler, 2017, “Induced abortions 2016,” Julkari, on line [http://www.julkari.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/135557/Tr40_17.pdf]. 

France
Vilain, Annick, June 2017, “211 900 interruptions volontaires de grossesse en 2016,” Etudes & Resultats, 1013, on line at DREES [http://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/er_1013.pdf].

Germany
Statistisches Bundesamt, 2018, “Abortions: Abortions by reason of termination, duration of terminated pregnancy and number of previous live births,” Statistisches Bundesamt, on line [https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/SocietyState/Health/Abortions/Tables/LegalStatement.html]. 

Portugal
Servico Nacional de Saude, 2017, “Interrupcoa da gravidez,” SNS, [https://www.sns.gov.pt/noticias/2017/12/07/interrupcao-da-gravidez/]. 

Switzerland
Statistik Schweiz, 2016, “Anzahl Schwangershcaftsabbruche, nach Kanton der intervention, 2004-2015,” Statistik Schweiz, on line [http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/14/02/03/key/03.Document.85933.xls]. 

Ireland
Department of Health, Jan. 2018, “Abortion Statistics, England and Wales: 2016,” Department of Health, on line [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/679028/Abortions_stats_England_Wales_2016.pdf]. <<abortions in UK>>

Johnston’s Archive at johnstonsarchive.net

Notes:

  1. The abortion % is the number of abortions on residents divided by the total number of (live births plus abortions) among residents.
  2. No allowance has been made for population increases.
  3. An upward adjustment has been made to the reported Irish rate to make allowance for possible under reporting and the use of abortion pills. In the absence of a definitive way to measure the impact of these issues we have arbitrarily increased the current number of abortions by 2 per day or 730 per annum. This increases the abortion rate from 4.9 as in the above table to 5.9 and this latter figure has been used in the calculations above.